winter 2018 quarterly commentary

A New Year typically brings with it a new sense of optimism. This really should be expected in 2018 coming off a very strong market last year and with the recent Tax Bill signed by the President. This keeps us constructive on the markets in the upcoming year but our exuberance has been replaced by cautious optimism for several reasons.

fall 2017 quarterly commentary

While it is human nature to be more comfortable being ‘consensus’, there is a growing belief on Wall Street and Main Street that we are living in a ‘glass half-full’ economy as opposed to the general view that we are ‘half-empty’.  As a result, we believe that the strong market performance over the past year is a reliable barometer that, if Congress does its job and passes corporate tax reform, we may just be in the early innings of an accelerating economy. 

Summertime often gives investors time to pause, relax and reflect on a year that is already half gone. Money managers are no different. We could pat ourselves on the back for a first half 2017 that has exceeded most of our expectations. However, that is not our nature.

Is this the goldilocks investing environment that many investors have been waiting for? Interest rates remain low, inflation is tepid, our economy is slowly accelerating, stock fundamentals are strengthening, on and on…! What could possibly go wrong?

The roller coaster year that was 2016 has prepared us well for the 2017 new year. The election may be over but half of America is still quite unhappy with the election result. So, while our near-term outlook tells us 2017 will be a glass-half-full kind of year in the markets, we are cognizant that the many problems we face cannot be fixed overnight with a new leader at the helm.

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